US Financial Outlook Considerably Stronger Than You’d Suppose

Dave:
We hear numerous adverse issues in regards to the US economic system or a minimum of numerous social media and let’s face it, the common media pushes numerous doom and gloom tales about what’s occurring fiscally and economically on this nation. However at present we’re going to take a step again and take a look at how the USA economic system at present in late 2024 compares to the remainder of the world and we’re going to be bringing on among the best economists and forecasters within the nation to share what he thinks is in retailer for the broader American economic system, not only for this 12 months, however properly into the long run.

Dave:
Hey everybody, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market, and at present we’re going to be joined once more by Joe Brusuelas. He’s been on the present earlier than speaking in regards to the World Financial system Tremendous in style present, so we introduced him again on. If you happen to don’t bear in mind, Joe is the principal and chief economist as RSM. He’s been named among the best financial forecasters on the market by Bloomberg, and at present we’re going to speak to him about the place the US sits globally and the way we stack as much as different economies. We’ll speak about China’s financial slowdown. We’ll discuss in regards to the battle within the Center East and what that would imply for oil costs. We’ll additionally get Joe’s tackle the most important financial dangers going through the US and his prediction on the place fed charges will land within the subsequent 12 months, and I’m going to provide you slightly little bit of a spoiler. Joe has a refreshingly optimistic however very candid view of the US economic system and he understands it in addition to anybody. He’s acquired numerous knowledge, info, expertise to again up his opinions and if you happen to’re like me, you’ll like what he has to say about the way forward for the US economic system. With that, let’s convey on Joe.

Dave:
Joe, welcome again to On the Market. Thanks for being right here at present.

Joe:
Thanks for having me on. It’s all the time good to speak to you, Dave.

Dave:
Nicely, we don’t all the time discuss in regards to the international economic system right here and available on the market, so I feel it might be useful if you happen to might possibly simply give us a abstract of the worldwide economic system and type of the place the US sits by way of competitiveness, progress, inflation, all the important thing indicators. How does the US stack up towards the remainder of the world proper now?

Joe:
Okay. Nicely, I suppose two issues. The primary is is that we’ve seen the primary tentative steps of what we will name the worldwide restoration. It might seem that the preliminary value shock attributable to the shutdown of provide chains throughout the pandemic has now ebbed. Central banks have seen the economic system start to get well and so they’re now engaged in a close to synchronized set of central financial institution price cuts. Whereas progress isn’t going to be spectacular, it’s going to be strong most likely into three to three.2% selection for your entire 12 months. Now, the USA, due to the mixed fiscal and financial firepower put to work throughout the pandemic emerged first, and what we’re seeing on this first part of the publish pandemic economic system is that the USA is trying quite a bit stronger its progress price via mid-year 3.1% on a 12 months in the past foundation. Dave, we spent numerous time fascinated about the true economic system in my enterprise and actual remaining non-public demand that’s the perfect proxy for the economic system.

Joe:
It’s up 2.6% and it’s been pegged there for higher a part of a 12 months now. So the USA economic system is doing fairly properly even because it cools into the tip of the 12 months no longer simply progress but in addition inflation as we communicate. The general inflation price, the underlying inflation price’s round 2.5%, maybe a bit decrease, and once more, the US is simply merely outperforming its G seven friends. What’s most necessary is that previous to the pandemic, US attracted about 18 to twenty% of capital flows all over the world popping out of the pandemic. It’s greater than 30%, and one will get the sense that the mixed impression of US industrial coverage as coverage designed to assist toddler industries like synthetic intelligence and to be sure that the taking part in subject with respect to commerce is leveled out along with the availability and chain resilience insurance policies which were put in place and the primary steps in the direction of a extra sustainable set of environmental insurance policies all are working to draw capital from all over the world.

Joe:
Furthermore, since 2021, in our personal inner surveys, we might see a transfer by corporations to start substituting very refined know-how for a scarcity of labor. That lack of labor was attributable to the long run demographic adjustments that had been going via, the grain getting old and exit of the newborn boomers from the workforce, after which additionally a protracted interval of funding in know-how that’s now starting to reap and beneficial properties. Now, it’s attention-grabbing, it doesn’t fairly embody synthetic intelligence, however the level is now that that lengthy interval of funding is actually starting to repay US productiveness is up 2.7% on a 12 months over 12 months foundation. That’s the perfect. For the reason that interval of 1995 to 2004, the USA comes, it’s simply outperforming, however that enchancment in productiveness, that’s the magical elixir, the key sauce if you’ll,

Joe:
That permits the economic system to develop quicker, have a decrease unemployment price and value stability. Proper? Ought to we proceed to see this and I feel we are going to as a result of we’re simply seeing the tip of the spear round synthetic intelligence. It’s going to alter the underlying construction of not solely the USA economic system however the international economic system going ahead. There are good and nice issues occurring throughout the American economic system, and it’s good that we speak about them as a result of too many instances the doom and gloom crew on the market have the initiative. It’s all the time simpler to sound smarter if you’re being hypercritical or stating the shortcomings about what’s occurring available in the market or the economic system, however I acquired to inform you what we’re seeing right here. The baseline means that we’re going to be onwards and upwards with this economic system for a lot of years, and that’s a superb factor to speak about.

Dave:
I find it irresistible. Yeah, I imply, I really feel like we hear numerous negativity in regards to the economic system, however a lot of the info means that the US remains to be actually aggressive, even within the gentle of seeing numerous recession warnings, labor market softening. I feel there are some broader developments that you simply’ve been seeing. One query I need to ask although, is the US outperforming as a result of we’re at a interval of power or are among the beforehand robust rivals like China simply type of fading away?

Joe:
Nicely, I feel it’s slightly little bit of each that among the challenges to the economic system across the pandemic have simply ended, proper? The economic system’s normalizing now on a 12 months in the past foundation, we’re up 3.1% via the center a part of the 12 months, and that’s not going to be sustainable. We’re going to maneuver again to a pattern just under a 2%, proper round 1.8%, in order the economic system cools, you need to anticipate to see demand for hiring. Cool. Keep in mind a 12 months in the past the unemployment price was 3.4%, okay? That’s too low. Out of 2022 into early 2023, the economic system was prone to overheating, proper? The truth that we’ve been capable of obtain that smooth touchdown, in different phrases, are nonetheless in full employment with the economic system cooling and value stability returning means we’ve achieved the goals of the exit from the pandemic. The economic system didn’t crash. Now, I do know that there’s an enormous doom and gloom crew on the market for 2 years they’ve been predicting recession in a sure level. It’s like being a damaged clock. That’s proper. Twice a day, proper? They’ll be proper ultimately, but it surely doesn’t appear like the economic system is prone to recession or shall be falling into one within the close to time period, and it’s unlucky that that discourse acquire predominance in some quarters as a result of there are rational traders and good hardworking people who find themselves actually lacking out on what’s occurring proper now within the economic system.

Dave:
We’ve to take a fast break, however extra from Joe Bruce Suela after we return. Welcome again to On the Market. Since we do discuss extra in regards to the American economic system on the present and you might be an skilled within the international economic system, I’d like to only contact on among the main storylines within the international economic system as a result of to me what you’re saying in regards to the American state of affairs is sensible. The variable that makes me slightly nervous is simply type of like a black swan occasion as a result of it simply looks like there’s a lot geopolitical instability proper now. So what are the primary tales on a geopolitical international economic system degree that you simply assume are necessary at present?

Joe:
Nicely, in the beginning, it’s the position standing and dangers across the folks’s republic of China. China for near 30 years noticed close to double digit price progress on a median foundation. Nicely, China’s REITs, what economists would name a center revenue lure, that their enterprise mannequin, that was the first driver in progress modernization, huge funding in business, residential actual property, after which subsidizing industries change into an export oriented progress mannequin have largely come to an finish. That mannequin goes to be required to alter, it’s going to want to evolve, however due to the distinctive political economic system of the PRC, you might have an authoritarian authorities on high of a market economic system beneath sure situations that may be very troublesome, and people situations are starting to approximate. China’s true progress price’s most likely slowing to someplace round 2%. It’s home economic system, its family tempo of consumption has slowed considerably why they’re going via a basic debt and leveraging cycle altogether.

Joe:
Not too completely different from what the USA went via between 2007 and 2014, and sadly with the Japanese economic system went via over a interval of a long time beginning within the early Nineteen Nineties till very not too long ago, and we’re undecided how that is going to evolve. Proper now, the Chinese language home political, fiscal and financial authority appears completely reluctant to reflate the home sector. By that I imply they should switch incomes from companies to households with a purpose to get that economic system transferring in as a result of they’re unsure across the true situation of the underlying monetary sector. Furthermore, with a purpose to preserve issues transferring as a result of what the Chinese language actually worry is a rise in unemployment and B, a rise inflation, they’re making an attempt to export the burden of adjustment to its commerce companions. What which means is the Chinese language have directed that the political authorities directed the monetary sector to reallocate threat capital to manufacturing. Proper now, China’s acquired an incredible oversupply of products and since they need to make their commerce companions take in their adjustment by mainly telling them, you’re going to have to just accept a smaller share of worldwide manufacturing as we export our surplus capability. Now, Dave, if this was 1995 and even 2005, your entire world would’ve stated, yeah, we’ll do this. Proper?

Dave:
Why would they’ve accepted that?

Joe:
As a result of on the time we might’ve thought that this was a part of binding China to an current international order that it had a stake in in order that it might not search to overturn that order.

Dave:
Clearly,

Joe:
That didn’t find yourself the best way that policymakers 30 or 40 years in the past thought. So we’re in a really completely different interval the place the main economies, the US, Europe, the united kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, are clearly not going to just accept a smaller share of worldwide manufacturing. That’s why we’ve seen the tariffs, the commerce wars, the geopolitical tensions which have clearly spilled over. I imply, the first goal of US industrial coverage is to restrict the capability of China to imagine and set international requirements round electrical automobiles and round refined microchips. Furthermore, it’s to guard our toddler synthetic intelligence trade and quantum. So there’s quite a bit there. The 2 outs without cost commerce are nationwide safety and toddler industries. The US has declared each. That’s why we’ve seen a change within the construction of the worldwide economic system, capital flows, by way of commerce. So we’re going to be in a interval of some rigidity for a superb time over China’s over capability and its try and export its burden of adjustment to its commerce companions.

Dave:
Are you able to say slightly bit extra about that, Joe, as a result of I’m curious what potential impacts on the US economic system there are from this example in China?

Joe:
Nicely, it’s quite a bit lower than it might’ve been a lot of years in the past. Every quarter you may open up what’s referred to as the ten Qs and take a look at the stability sheets of the banks and see their publicity to completely different economies. Over the previous variety of years, the massive banks have started to scale back their publicity to PRC, and that lessens the likelihood that contagion from an actual disaster in China would circulation via the monetary channel. However the level is, if you happen to’re a forward-looking investor and also you’re nervous about threat, you may open up the ten Qs of the 100 or so systemically necessary monetary establishments, the massive banks all over the world and see what the publicity is. There’s much more transparency than you’ll assume given the neo conspiratorial discuss that masquerades is standard knowledge in some quarters.

Dave:
Acquired it. Nicely, I haven’t even heard of that, however I’m guarantee reassured a bit a minimum of that you simply really feel that almost all American banks or western banks are most likely not tremendous uncovered. I’m curious although, transferring on from China, if you happen to assume there’s restricted threat coming from China proper now, are there different geopolitical conditions evolving that you simply assume do pose a much bigger threat or a much bigger alternative to the US economic system?

Joe:
Okay, so once I take into consideration the worldwide economic system, proper, as a result of my principal valley Wix see American economic system, however like all people else for the reason that nice monetary disaster, you needed to change into an skilled on international economics as a result of it’s an interdependent, globally intertwined built-in economic system. When you concentrate on international economics, you begin with commodities and vitality all the time and in all places first. Then you definitely transfer to industrial manufacturing due to the tumult within the Center East, and we’re now 10 months into the newest battle between Israel and its antagonists. Nicely, you do take into consideration the value of oil. Now my sense right here is that the USA, the Norwegians, the Latins have all stepped up manufacturing proper now. We’re awash in a sea of oil globally, and there’s extra coming on-line resulting from what’s occurring in Africa and even among the rehabilitation of among the states within the Center East. So proper now, I’m not too involved a few value shock through the oil channel, however one all the time ought to be involved about occasions within the Center East spilling over right into a wider conflagration that entails the Israelis and the Iranians and their supporters. In order that’s the opposite main threat on the market, I feel proper now.

Dave:
Acquired it. Okay. And that threat would come to the US largely via oil costs,

Joe:
It via the oil channel. Now, it’s necessary that we put this within the correct context, proper? The US is the main producer of oil on this planet now. It’s self-sufficient with regards to vitality. We really produce extra oil than we use, so we’re now exporting it. You might need observed gasoline costs this 12 months, Dave. They’re down nearly 9% from the height in April, and I took a take a look at wholesale gasoline futures as a result of earlier than we got here on, as a result of I assumed we may be speaking about this, we should always see one other 6% decline in gasoline costs, and that merely has to do with the tempo of home consumption. We change into extremely environment friendly in our home oil and vitality enterprise. The identical firms that produce oil start to put money into renewables a few decade in the past, and it’s beginning to bear fruit, however nonetheless, the value for oil set globally, if there’s a disruption in provide of the Center East, it’s going to hit our commerce companions and invariably that may impression us. In order that does stay to me that it’s the second largest threat on the market of a black swan if that’s the way you need to elevate it to the worldwide

Dave:
Financial system. Thanks for explaining that. I feel these are two international conditions that I and our viewers can wrap our heads round. So let’s simply return again to the us. You appear bullish on the US economic system. What’s your for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, what ought to we anticipate?

Joe:
Nicely, we anticipate to see long-term pattern like progress for the second half of the 12 months and into subsequent 12 months, which means proper round 2% with some upside threat. There’s an incredible fiscal tailwind behind the US economic system having to do with the rebuilding of its infrastructure, the availability chains. We’ve a type of new chip factories about 20 miles from the place I stay. You must see it, Dave. It’s unbelievable. You bought to go? No, I acquired to go. Yeah. I’ve been capable of tour the manufacturing facility right here in Texas and the 2 out in Arizona. Cool. You recognize what it’s prefer it simply as an apart, again within the nineties, we used to play this recreation referred to as Sim Metropolis. You type of construct civilization, proper?

Dave:
Oh, I do know it. After all,

Joe:
You possibly can exit Tyler, Texas and watch round Tyler how civilization is being constructed from the substructure that’s being put in to assist all the pieces to the highways, to the townhomes, the condos, the one household residences, and the entire way of life facilities which can be springing as much as assist all this, proper? I’m really speaking to a agency in Europe that’s fascinated about investing in wealth administration in Tyler, Texas to anticipate the explosion of the increase across the constructing of those fabs. Wow. That’s why one of many components and the explanation why I’m very bullish on the ahead look across the economic system, since you’re going to see not solely central Texas, not solely Phoenix, Scottsdale, however you’re going to see Ohio and upstate New York, Columbus, Ohio on the realm on Cornell and upstate New York be the recipient of funding as a result of fundamental resolution by the USA to create resilient provide chains round probably the most superior and complex know-how, and I’m anticipating we’re going to see extra of this second with the US unemployment price sitting round 4.3 now.

Joe:
We expect it’ll end round 4 and a half on the finish of the 12 months. That’s traditionally low inflation is ebbing, which which means actual incomes are going up. For the previous 15 months, the typical employees seeing a rise of their incomes over inflation. The argument we’re having with one another about grocery costs, when you account for hours labored and revenue above inflation, grocery costs, what it takes to work or to pay for every week’s of grocery costs is true again to the place it was in 2019. Now, that’s nothing. I’m going to go stand in entrance of a college board with the PTA and inform them, proper? Folks throw eggs and tomatoes at you, they merely received’t consider you but it’s empirically true and over time, economics has a humorous manner of trumping ideology and politics and that actuality will happen as a result of every family is continuing via the adjustment publish inflation shock otherwise.

Joe:
Some have already made their adjustment and moved on, others are within the midst it and others, it’s going to take some time, proper? There’s no two households which can be alike, however I’m assured that that adjustment will happen. We’ve acquired a dynamic economic system that’s rising. It’s turning into much less fragile by the day as we harden these provide chains, as we transfer in the direction of a special stability by way of the general economic system, sure, there are dangers. There are all the time going to be challenges and there are all the time going to be issues, however to me, the economic system seems to be prefer it’s on a way more sturdier basis than it did in 2019.

Dave:
Wow. Joe, you’re getting me fired up in regards to the American economic system. I really like this optimistic view. Time for one final fast break, however after the break, we’re going to listen to from Joe on his predictions in regards to the US economic system and the place the Fed funds price may land within the subsequent 12 months. Hey, traders, let’s soar again in. You probably did say there’s dangers although, so what are the dangers that you simply see?

Joe:
Alright, properly, we clearly have had a structural change in how and the place we work between 20 and 30% of us work from home and work from home completely. That’s precipitated a difficulty in business actual property.

Dave:
Positive has.

Joe:
I used to be simply studying a narrative this morning about how within the main metros, there’s a juxtaposition that’s fashioned within the class, a business actual property sector. The newer buildings with the facilities and the know-how, they’re full. They’re over capability

Dave:
Workplace house, you imply?

Joe:
Workplace house? Yeah. The older workplace house that doesn’t have that, these capabilities, there’s some actual issues. Now, one doesn’t need to low cost the monetary exercise that’s going to go on in business actual property. Certainly in 2023, March, April. Keep in mind the mini disaster across the state and native banks,

Joe:
There are banks which can be going to fail. They’re going to be issues. The vast majority of these notes are held in these state and native banks, and it’s going to take some time to work via that. Nevertheless, it’s not a systemic threat. It’s extra of an area financial threat, however that’s a part of it. Second, there’s a wall of maturing company debt. It’s going to must be handled over the subsequent two to a few years. It’s about $3 trillion in debt. It’s the debt that was issued on the backside of the pandemic 20 20, 20 21 when rates of interest had been very low. So consider 800 million that was issued close to 0% in actual phrases, properly, most company money owed 5 years. We’re going to maneuver into the primary classic that’s 5 years outdated and it’s going to must be rolled over. Nicely, let’s say it was issued at 2%. Nicely, we’re going to roll that over. It’s going to be nearer to 5 to eight%. Is it going to be 800 million? No, it’s going to be extra like 500 million.

Dave:
Yeah. Can I simply soar in Joe and clarify to everybody what this implies for individuals who don’t know company debt, similar to the US can situation bonds to lift capital companies situation debt.

Joe:
That’s proper,

Dave:
And so they had been getting it tremendous low cost similar to everybody else was getting tremendous low cost debt throughout the pandemic, and it seems like what you’re saying, Joe, is that companies are going to need to reissue this debt. They want the working capital, however at a better price, which I assume impacts their cashflow.

Joe:
That’s proper. So not like you who may’ve purchased a home and had a 30 12 months fastened mortgage, the speed received’t change till you promote it.

Dave:
Yep.

Joe:
Companies sometimes tackle debt in a 5 12 months increments or much less, so each 5 years they should roll over that debt and refinance it. So let me make it actual easy. An $800 million mortgage by a big agency taken out at 5% in 2020 will doubtless be rolled over, however not at those self same phrases. It’ll most likely be extra like 500 million at 8%, let’s say. Proper? Simply to make it straightforward to get your head wrapped round it, okay. Into the hole, that 300 million that must be funded, non-public fairness and personal credit score will step in, which is why we all the time need to ensure that we all know what’s occurring and the well being of personal fairness and personal credit score. That’s one thing that would trigger a slowdown in hiring and a slowdown in total financial exercise. Now, having stated that, as a result of I outlined the dangers business actual property and the maturity wall of debt that’s going to must be rolled over the functioning of American capital markets over the past 12 months has been nothing in need of vital. We simply haven’t seen an actual downside rolling over that debt within the monetary exercise from the business actual property sector, and it seems to be to me with the Federal Reserve starting to embark on its price reducing cycle right here in September that we’re going to have the ability to do this too, and I feel we should always discuss slightly bit about that price reducing cycle as a manner of coming again full circle to the beginning of the present

Dave:
Earlier than we go into the speed reduce cycle, which I do need to speak about. We’ve been listening to and speaking about on the present quite a bit, this impending adjustment correction reckoning in business actual property. Why has it taken so lengthy?

Joe:
Okay, so it’s in nobody’s curiosity both the folks holding the loans or the entities which have to interact in a disorderly panic. Second, US economic system’s $27 trillion. It’s an enormous, enormous dynamic animal. These giant sums, about 101 and a half trillion {dollars} was the estimate that needed to be rolled in CRE at the start of the 12 months to the mere mortal. That appears, oh my god, that’s enormous. That’s going to trigger a recession. No, it’s not. It’s merely not giant sufficient. It might trigger issues in sure localities the place the non-performing loans put constraints on native banks to assist regional financial exercise. Yeah, I feel North Texas, proper? We will see issues slowing down in North Texas. It’s within the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Regional Survey. You possibly can inform that the elevated interval of rates of interest mixed with the flexibility or constraints round these native banks to make loans resulting from the truth that they’re holding a big portfolio of non-performing loans or semi non-performing loans is inflicting a few of these areas to decelerate, but it surely’s not ample in and of itself to trigger a systemic downside or to trigger the general economic system itself to decelerate.

Joe:
I’m simply sufficiently old to recollect the financial savings and mortgage disaster of the Eighties and Nineteen Nineties that contributed considerably to what was the tip of the massive Reagan Eighties period increase. This simply isn’t that.

Dave:
All proper. Nicely, I suppose we’ll have to only wait and see the way it performs out, however I’m glad to listen to that you simply don’t assume it’s going to trigger some systemic shock. Final thing I need to chat with you about right here at present, Joe, is what you alluded to earlier, the fed reducing cycle. Inform us what you make of the Fed’s place proper now and the way it may play out over the subsequent few years.

Joe:
Okay. On the Jackson Gap Financial Symposium, the Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell was very express. It’s time for a coverage pivot. Rates of interest are going to begin to come down now. Proper now, the federal funds price sitting between 5.25 and 5.5%. We anticipate that we’re going to get a string of 25 foundation level price cuts. The chance is that they could possibly be bigger if hiring slows or there’s one thing going fallacious within the exterior economic system that impinges on the home economic system. It’s not a lot the primary price reduce that issues or the second or third, it’s the vacation spot. Now, we predict primarily based on our, what’s referred to as estimation of the response operate of the Federal Reserve or the estimation of what’s the optimum rate of interest given prevailing situations within the economic system, will trigger the Federal Reserve to decrease that by about 200 foundation factors to round someplace between three and three.5%, and we predict they’ll get there within the second half of subsequent 12 months.

Joe:
That’s going to offer fairly the enhance to the home economic system. It’ll permit one to refinance their mortgage price in the event that they purchased a house over the past 12 months, 12 months and a half, refinance auto charges. If you happen to’ve taken out a mortgage over the past two years, it’s going to decrease the rate of interest cost on revolving debt. It’ll assist the federal authorities to roll over debt at cheaper charges. As these charges come down, you’ll see what we name the time period spectrum of curiosity. Charges from two to 5 years reset decrease. We expect the entrance finish will reset a lot decrease, and if you happen to’re a shopper, you need to watch that 10 12 months price. After all, if you happen to’re in enterprise and also you want capital to develop your corporation, you need to focus like a laser being on what’s referred to as the stomach of the curve from two to 5 years basically, and that 5 12 months particularly at present, the US 5 years buying and selling at 3.65%.

Joe:
Okay, you’re a agency. You need to take out 100 million {dollars}. You need to develop manufacturing and go rent folks. Okay, good. Do this. Why? Nicely, 3.65%, you need to much less out the inflation price, two level a half. Meaning the true price of return is 1.15. Because the time period shifts decrease, it’s going to value you much less to develop your agency through American capital markets. That’s a basically good factor. We’ll put a ground into the economic system, we’ll put a ceiling on high of how excessive unemployment can go, and mainly, Dave, we’re all going to lastly get on with it. We’ll have the ability to look again and rear view mirror and say the pandemic period is definitely over.

Dave:
Wow. You’re painted a fairly image, Joe. I prefer it and I hope you’re proper, however you’re clearly very knowledgeable opinions right here, and I hope that for all of us that this optimistic view of a rising steady, such as you stated, dynamic American economic system is strictly what we’re going to get. Joe, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us at present. We’ll put hyperlinks to Joe’s analysis, his contact info within the present notes as we all the time do. Thanks for becoming a member of us at present, Joe.

Joe:
Thank You, Dave.It was all the time a pleasure

Dave:
In the marketplace, was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The present is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with modifying by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content material, and we need to prolong an enormous thanks to everybody at BiggerPockets for making this present doable.